Is Apple the next Sega?
I watched the Macworld keynote recently. This is notable because I’ve never owned or even used a Macintosh computer. I have an iPod Nano (given to me by my former employer) but that is about it in terms my Apple-branded products.
The way I understand it Macworld is where people go once a year to have your minds blown. Maybe this was a bad year but I didn’t find anything remotely interesting in what I saw.
This is what I learned from Apple’s biggest event of the year:
- People love glass buildings.
- iPhoto knows my friends from my enemies.
- I can geotag my photos so I won’t confuse the photos I took in France with the ones I took in Bangkok.
- I can make amazing slide shows for my trips to Africa (finally).
- I can have amazing slide animations in my savings reports presentations.
- Pages ’09 has a fullscreen mode.
- All of the above could be mine for only $158 USD!
- You can get a Macbook with a glossless screen but only if you’re willing to pay extra.
- Apple also makes batteries.
- Tony Bennett is old.
This may seem like an unfair summary but despite my efforts to be funny it’s really not. Watching a crowd of people spontaneously raising into a cheer over a new slide show animation convinced me that this whole Apple fandom thing must be dumb and a bubble waiting to pop.
Apple’s forte is obviously in hardware. No one gives a shit about their software. Apple’s software strengths can be summed up in a single word: "Adobe". Whenever a new Macintosh is released nowadays all what people are interested to know is: How does it look? How does it feel? How much? I’ve tried to learn more about the Mac OS and its software but its almost impossible to find any information. With Macintosh, it’s all surface and no substance.
Compare this with (what many still consider to be Apple’s main competitor) Microsoft. Microsoft is a software company and thus arguably not even a competitor. Microsoft has a number of events each year, one of which is PDC. PDC is a developer conference. That’s where you go learn about all the things that Microsoft has made available to software developers and it’s usually a lot of stuff! I dare you to go to the PDC web site and watch any of the sessions. It’ll bore you to death but it will blow your mind at the same time! It’s all very boring stuff but extremely useful for software developers. You know, the people who actually makes computers useful.
Apple’s strategy seem to be "Give a man a fish. He’ll love it!" and this is true for the kind of people who wouldn’t call themselves computer users. In contrast Microsoft’s strategy, with their PDC conference is: "Teach a man to fish". They won’t give you pretty animations. They give you things like WPF. It should be obvious which one of these strategies is the better one in the long run.
This is where my Sega analogy comes into play. In the early 90′s, Nintendo and Sega were more than just competitors. They were in many eyes mortal enemies! Sega waged a harsh campaign against Nintendo and even made up new words to promote their systems, but in the end they succumbed and stopped making game consoles altogether. Instead they changed gears and focused on game development alone.
If Microsoft is Nintendo, then Apple must be Sega. If things continue as they do for Apple, the bubble will eventually pop. Students will realize that a proper PC will do more for less cost. Apple’s market will shrink into a mere shadow of what it currently is and they will switch gears to do what they do best, which is hardware for the PC and entertainment markets.
College Sys admin said:
Jan 12, 09 at 22:35As a sys admin at a college I can say… it ain’t going to happen. More iphones, ipod touches, macbooks and macbook pros show up every year. The kids love the stuff.
blidd said:
Jan 12, 09 at 22:35Please do check your facts before publishing bullshit if you want to learn more about the software you go to the world wide developed conference i the middle of the year. Not to a cosumershow like macworld.that conference has the same kind of boring presentations as microsoft for the non programeres. With the mac I can eat the fish but I can also choose do the fishing myself and doing so way easier than on a pc. It is the ease of use we like
gagravaar said:
Jan 12, 09 at 22:37You have company…
http://www.macobserver.com/appledeathknell/
E said:
Jan 12, 09 at 22:37You are so misinformed it isn’t even worth responding. There is so much falsehoods in your diatribe that while I should delve into all of it, I will only respond to what I came here to respond to to begin with…
You write:
“Students will realize that a proper PC will do more for less cost.”
I imagine you mean a PC from Dell or HP. Will do more? SInce the Mac can run Windows AND Mac OSX AND Linux, while the PC can only run Windows and Linux, how exactly does the PC “do more”?
PV said:
Jan 12, 09 at 22:38Predicting Apple’s demise is great way to increase website hits, despite the fact that the company has had great success for almost a decade. Someday, one of the predictions will be correct as Apple will surely one day go the way of Lehman Brothers (or dare I say, GM?). Whether that is in a 10 years of a hundred, no one truly knows. Surely, your prognostication has the air of Windows wishful thinking.
clarus said:
Jan 12, 09 at 22:40You’ve got it backwards. Apple is Nintendo. Microsoft is themselves plus Electronic Arts rolled into one.
A couple of years ago people were saying that the XBox and PlayStation franchises had buried Nintendo, that the maker of low performance consoles with cutesy games was going to close its doors or sell out. Then a little thing called the Wii happened. It’s still a low performance console compared to the PS3 or XBox 360 so why is it doing so well? The user interface.
Nobody knows what the future holds for Nintendo or Apple, but I have a lot more confidence in both of them now than I did before the Wii/iPod took the world by storm.
Frank Corrigan said:
Jan 12, 09 at 22:41I hesitate to post a reply to this as I think it might be some kind of Joke. But here it goes….
“No one gives a shit about their software. ” — Wrong, it’s all about the software
“I’ve tried to learn more about the Mac OS and its software but its almost impossible to find any information” — Try Apple Developer Connection or anything to do “Open-Source” or “Unix”
Compare this with (what many still consider to be Apple’s main competitor) Microsoft. Microsoft is a software company and thus arguably not even a competitor. Microsoft has a number of events each year, one of which is PDC. PDC is a developer
conference. — Try WWDC Apple’s World Wide DEVELOPER Conference .
Apple’s strategy seem to be “Give a man a fish. He’ll love it!”
– ALL Apple Developer Tools Ship for FREE on Every Mac Computer shipped by Apple, A developer connection membership is FREE to anyone who wishes to join. Apple Software is based on Unix which makes porting from other Unix System a snap.
Software is the reason for Apple’s recent market-share gains. The Hardware is just a benefit.
Polar said:
Jan 12, 09 at 22:45I guess time will tell if you are right. It’s actually quite easy to throw comparaisons out there and hope that they stick. It’s a 50/50 shot. However, we have all been down this road way to often with Apple (remember the late nineties?). Still, the company is here and all is great (for the most part).
It’s clear that if you take what we heard (or didn’t hear) at the Macworld 09, it’s easy to think that the company is running out of steam. However (again), Apple doesn’t give up it’s secrets. It has other plans we don’t know about. From what I hear, Apple wants to release its hardware/software on its own schedule. Plus add the fact that Macworld is not an Apple conference. It is quite expensive for them. So do like the rest of the expo’s outthere…. cut’em!
So is Apple the new Sega? I seriously doubt it.
Rob said:
Jan 12, 09 at 23:18That was a hilarious read. You really haven’t got a clue about Macs and Mac OS X, right?
Don said:
Jan 12, 09 at 23:48You’re absolutely correct. You can do a LOT more on a PC than on a Mac. You can spend hours reinstalling your software. You can spend hundreds of dollars and countless hours fighting off malware. You can run a presenter that’s far superior to Powerpoint called Keynote. Oh wait. No, you can’t. Never mind. You like thousands of others who need professional quality, can use Final Cut to edit film and video…Oh wait. No, you can’t. Never mind.
You can use Apple’s Shake to create Academy Award winning special effects, such as in the film, Lord of the Rings. Oh wait. No you can’t. Never mind. You can use Logic Studio to write, record, edit, mix, and perform music in the studio and on the stage. Oh wait. No, you can’t. Never mind.
But you can run lots of anti-malware software!
Of course, if you want to compare Apple and MS to Sega and Nintendo…let’s see. Nintendo makes hardware and software while Sega made some hardware and lost so much money at it they just make software, now.
So HOW many compters does Microsoft make and sell every year? I believe the grand total is zero. Nada. Niente. They just make software. That would make Apple like Nintendo and MS like Sega.
Damn…you’re a loser at every turn. Let me guess. You weren’t getting enough hits so you decided to slam Apple Knowing that people would find it and respond to your ignorance.
Go back to Halo, little boy. Some day you’ll become a grown up and have to face the real live world.
wombat said:
Jan 12, 09 at 23:53Before you spout off, maybe you should do some more research aside from just watching a keynote for a conference in which Apple will no longer be participating. That way, you won’t sound like an ignorant fool.
You could possibly start here: http://developer.apple.com/WWDC/.
oz said:
Jan 13, 09 at 00:40I alway love reviews and commentary from people that have never used the product and don’t even have the basic understanding of the basic fact that what differentiated Apple is the software! Beside the fact that Apple is leaving the Mac World forum and let everyone know that they were no longer using it for major project announcements you sum up you total lack of understanding by citing it as you proof that Apple is going bust soon
This falls under the category of self absorb opinions that state because i think so it must be a new worthy opinion. How about bothering to research a little more about the company, products and history before blabbing away.
SlothropRedux said:
Jan 13, 09 at 01:18Hmm… comparing Macworld to a developer conference is really not very insightful. Macworld is a consumer show, and therefore it shows off technologies and products (not just Apple’s) designed for consumers. But the underlying (software AND hardware) technologies are extremely cool and exciting…
Why not compare Apple’s developer conference to Microsoft’s? Check out some of the sessions from last year’s World Wide Developer’s Conference (the premier developer conference for Apple products) at: http://developer.apple.com/wwdc/sessions/#tab=mac&descriptions=on .
Synthmeister said:
Jan 13, 09 at 01:54You were watching the wrong conference. You should be checking out the WWDC.
WWDC is a developer conference. That’s where you go learn about all the things that Apple has made available to software developers and it’s usually a lot of stuff! I dare you to go to the WWDC web site and watch any of the sessions. It’ll bore you to death but it will blow your mind at the same time! It’s all very boring stuff but extremely useful for software developers. You know, the people who actually makes computers useful.
Have you even looked at the developers tools for the iPhone? Beats the crap out of every other mobile platform. The App store gives every developer, big or small a shot at some serious money.
BTW, have you tried controlling a powerpoint presentation with your smartphone while seeing a preview of the next slide on the phone? Sure this may be trivial to some but it’s the kind of software trick that no one else seems to manage.
Jason said:
Jan 13, 09 at 02:04what a misguided article, how many times as Apple be declared dead by people and it still comes back strong. Apple just had it’s best year ever, I think that says a lot especially in 2008. Their software is great, works great together and is a hell of a lot cheaper then Adobe. For someone that has never used a mac, your article is very misleading. I did a BA in computer science, I have worked on mac’s and windows my whole life, mac are much eaiser to set up, more secure, more stable, last longer, and no driver, ini, dll, crap to deal with. If Apple is so bad, why is every cell phone maker copying the iphone, why does microsoft copy every feature in osx? When do you think Apple will become the next sega? I’ll bet you $1000 bucks it does not happen by any deadline you give.
AM said:
Jan 13, 09 at 02:22its obvious you have taken some M$ pills and decided to smoke it too.
Even if Apples share drops, it still is in a “profitable” market with the iPhone/iPod and Mac. Name ONE PC hardware maker who has consistently made a profit for over 10 years now!!
Its very clear – you dont understand why people use competing products – so you decide to bash them.
You have NOT used a single Mac product – yet you become an expert on why Macs are doomed with a strange analogy to Sega!!
You are definitely funny – NOT..!
fisherman mac said:
Jan 13, 09 at 02:33ooooooooooooook, spanky.
amused said:
Jan 13, 09 at 02:37WWDC
Al said:
Jan 13, 09 at 02:40Nah, it’s more like M&Ms and Reese’s Pieces. And Steve Jobs is ET.
Steve Ballmer said:
Jan 13, 09 at 02:44You’ve uncovered some really amazing secrets about Apple, a $79 billion dollar company (with $12B in CASH). They’ve only been around for thirty-three years. Obviously, people are about to catch on to the truth about the “bubble” and stop increasing MacOS market share in favor of Vista and proper PC hardware. Those proper PC manufacturers are doing great these days, aren’t they? (You might do a quick check on their balance sheets…)
You must be a whiz-bang programmer to think PDC is mind-blowing (and I admire that), but you might read past the man files on business analysis. Needs some work.
Melangell said:
Jan 13, 09 at 03:33So, you’re an idiot making opinions about a subject you admit you know nothing about… There is hope though, you are only twenty-five.
not an idiot said:
Jan 13, 09 at 04:15why should anyone care about uninformed predictions?? i wouldn’t get stock analysis from someone who’s never seen a balance sheet — why would anyone care about your opinions and predictions about the mac which you clearly know nothing about?
Dave said:
Jan 13, 09 at 04:58I bought the 2nd Mac model released in ~1985. I have always been amazed at the number of PC pundits who predict the demise of Apple. Most, like you, never used a Mac, never owned a Mac and never bothered to learn about a Mac. They just “know” that a Windows PC is a far superior computer.
I suggest you invest in a truckload of used PCs. There are literally tens of thousands of bargain PCs available. The number of Windows users upgrading to a Mac is unbelievable!!!
I have helped dozens of acquaintances buy their first Mac in recent years. My primary job is to assure them that they will master a Mac in just a week or two. They do—and then they sell their friends.
For the technically challenged, an Apple Store Genius will even transfer PC files to a brand new Mac—for free.
Troy said:
Jan 13, 09 at 06:08I can understand your baffled reaction to these responses. It’s the difference between programmers who argue about text-editors, who think features are a check-list, and discuss which linux kernel branch is best… and designers who know that the quality of features matter, and some features are best left out, and interface design rules.
Seeing you are from the first group, I don’t think you will ever “get it”. But understand that you don’t represent the market, other people care HOW it works, not that it just does. It also doesn’t hurt that for $1300 you get a laptop basically custom CNC machined out of a solid block of aluminum – gearhead quality for mid-priced computer.
Yes They don’t do low-end machines, but that isn’t their market segment.
AdamC said:
Jan 13, 09 at 12:37Check out the latest laptops from Apple they are faster than most PC desktops…..